Economics and Security Resource Page
Ross
Anderson
Do we spend enough on keeping `hackers' out of our computer systems?
Do we not spend enough? Or do we spend too much? For that matter, do
we spend too little on the police and the army, or too much? And do
we spend our security budgets on the right things?
The economics of security is a hot and rapidly growing field of
research. More and more people are coming to realise that security
failures are often due to perverse incentives rather than to the lack
of suitable technical protection mechanisms. (Indeed, the former often
explain the latter.) While much recent research has been on
`cyberspace' security issues - from hacking through fraud to copyright
policy - it is expanding to throw light on `everyday' security issues
at one end, and to provide new insights and new problems for `normal'
computer scientists and economists at the other. In the commercial
world, as in the world of diplomacy, there can be complex linkages
between security arguments and economic ends.
This page provides links to a number of key papers, conferences, the home pages of
active researchers, relevant books, and other resources. Complementary pages include Alessandro
Acquisti's privacy economics page, Jean Camp's bibliography and
Larry Gordon's pages on cybersecurity risk management.
Our annual event is the Workshop on Economics and Information Security:
the 2007 event will be at Carnegie-Mellon
University from 7-8 June. The 2006 workshop was held in
Cambridge, England; WEIS 2005 at
Harvard; WEIS 2004 at
Minnesota; WEIS 2003 at
the University of Maryland and WEIS
2002 at Berkeley. All the papers from past conferences are available
online, and a book, Economics of Information Security, has a selection of papers from WEIS 2002 and WEIS 2003. Events with some related subject-matter include the Conference on the
Economics of the Software and Internet Industries at Toulouse, the Workshop on Internet and
Network Economics in Greece, and the forthcoming Workshop on the Economics of
Securing the Information Infrastructure in Virginia.
Introductory Papers
- The Economics of
Information Security is a short survey paper that appeared in Science on
October 2006, while a much more detailed survey, The Economics
of Information Security: A Survey and Open Questions, was published at Softint in January
2007. (Here is an MP3 for the
visually disabled, or to listen to while jogging.) The latter is a work in
progress: I expect it will become much longer before it finds its way to a
journal.
- Managing
Online Security Risks was one of the early pieces, and is still a good
introduction. Hal Varian shows how a range of problems, from bank fraud to
distributed denial-of-service attacks, result when the incentives to avoid
abuse are poorly allocated. An analysis of cash machine
fraud, for example, showed that banks in countries with strong customer
rights suffered less fraud; complaints could not be ignored or brushed aside,
so they took more care than in countries where it was harder for fraud victims
to complain.
- Why Information
Security is Hard - An Economic Perspective was the paper that got
information security people thinking about the subject. Ross Anderson shows how
economic analysis explains many phenomena that security researchers had
previously found to be pervasive but perplexing. Why do mass-market software
products such as Windows contain so many security bugs? Why are their security
mechanisms so difficult to manage? Why for that matter are so many specialist
security products second-rate, with bad ones driving good ones out of the
market? Why is it hard for people to use security for competitive advantage -
and how might they? Why are government evaluation schemes, such as the Orange
Book and the Common Criteria, so bad? For that matter, why do government
agencies concerned with information warfare concentrate on offense rather than
defense, even now that the Cold War is over? (There is also an Italian
translation.)
- Cryptographic
abundance and pervasive computing by Andrew Odlyzko was an early paper to
point out the economic and social limits on security technology - if a boss's
secretary cannot forge his signature, a digital security system is as likely to
subtract value as add it.
- Cars, Colera and Cows:
The Management of Risk and Uncertainty is a classic paper by John Adams on
why organisations (and in particular governments) tend to be more risk-averse
than rational economic considerations would dictate. One of the mechanisms is
adverse selection: the people who end up in risk management jobs tend to be
more risk-averse than average.
- Electronic
Commerce: Who Carries the Risk of Fraud? (by Nick Bohm, Ian Brown and Brian
Gladman) documents how many banks have seen online banking, and information
security mechanisms such as cryptography and digital signatures, as a means of
dumping on their customers many of the transaction risks that they previously
bore themselves in the days of cheque-based and even telephone banking.
- Deworming
the Internet looks at the incentives facing virus writers,
software vendors and computer users. Its author Douglas Barnes asks
what policy initiatives might make computers less liable to infection.
- Economics,
Psychology and Sociology of Security by Andrew Odlyzko discusses a
number of ways in which cultural factors undermine the formal
assumptions underlying many security systems, and gives some insights
from evolutionary psychology; for example, we have specialised neural
circuits to detect cheating in social situations.
- Adverse Selection
in Online 'Trust' Certifications by Ben Edelman shows that websites with
the Trust-e seal of approval are much
more likely to be malicious than uncertified websites. Crooks have a greater
incentive to buy certification than honest merchants, so if the vetting
process isn't strict enough your certification scheme can easily end up
certifying the reverse of what it seems to.
Economics of Privacy
- Economic
Aspects of Personal Privacy is an early discussion by Hal Varian of how
market mechanisms might solve privacy problems, while Richard Posner's Orwell
versus Huxley: Economics, Technology, Privacy, and Satire touches on
a number of economic aspects of privacy and security technology.
- Privacy,
Economics and Price Discrimination tackles one of the thorniest
market-failure problems. Why is privacy being eroded so rapidly,
despite many people saying they care about it? Andrew Odlyzko's
analysis puts much of the blame on differential pricing. Technology is
increasing both the incentives and the opportunities for this. From
airline yield management to complex and constantly changing software
and telecomms prices, differential pricing is economically efficient -
but increasingly resented by consumers. His paper The
Unsolvable Privacy Problem and its Implications for Security
Technologies develops the argument to personalised pricing. Conditioning
prices on purchase history, by Alessandro Acquisti and Hal Varian,
analyses the market conditions under which first-degree price
discrimination will actually be profitable for a firm.
- Privacy and
Rationality: Preliminary Evidence from Pilot Data, by Alessandro
Acquisti and Jens Grossklags, studies the specific problem of why
people express a high preference for privacy when interviewed but
reveal a much lower preference through their behaviour both online and
offline.
- Why we
can't be bothered to read privacy policies - models of privacy economics
as a lemons market, by Tony Vila, Rachel Greenstadt, and David Molnar,
examines why many consumers fail to think of future price discrimination
when giving information to merchants.
- In Opt In Versus Opt
Out: A Free-Entry Analysis of Privacy Policies, Jan Bouckaert and Hans
Degryse compare the competitive effects of three customer privacy policies -
anonymity, opt-in and opt-out. Under certain assumptions, opt out is the
socially preferred privacy regime: the availability in the market of
information about the buying habits of most customers, rather than a few
customers, helps competitors to enter the market.
- Who Signed Up
for the Do-Not-Call List?, by Hal Varian, Fredrik Wallenberg and
Glenn Woroch, analyses the FCC's telephone-sales blacklist by district.
Privacy means different things to different population groups, but this
raises further questions. For example, educated people are more likely
to sign up, as one would expect: but is that because rich households get
more calls, because they value their time more, or because they
understand the risks better? In Financial Privacy for
Free?, Alessandro Acquisti and Bin Zhang apply a similar analysis to
credit reporting. In Is There a Cost to
Privacy Breaches? Alessandro Acquisti, Allan Friedman and Rahul
Telang look at the effect on companies' stock prices of reported
breaches of their customers' privacy.
- Privacy,
Property Rights & Efficiency: The Economics of Privacy as Secrecy, by
Benjamin Hermalin and Michael Katz
criticises the Chicago school view that
more information is better (if collected costlessly), and argues that privacy
can be efficient even when there is no `taste' for privacy per se. The authors
develop a general model which also challenges the Varian view that privacy
could be achieved by simply giving individuals property rights in information
about themselves. In the Hermalin-Katz model, an effective privacy policy may
need to ban information transmission or use. The flow of information between
trading partners can reduce ex-post trade efficiency when the increase in
information does not lead to symmetrically or fully informed parties.
- On the
Economics of Anonymity studies why anonymity systems are hard to sell,
and points out some of their novel aspects. For example, honest players
want some level of free-riding, in order to provide cover traffic. So
equilibria can also be novel, and the ways in which they break down can
be complex. We also have to consider a wider range of principals -
dishonest, lazy, strategic, sensitive, and myopic - than in most of the
markets that economists try to model. Anonymity Loves
Company: Usability and the Network Effect continues this analysis to
show when a user will prefer a weak but popular anaonymity system over a
strong but rarely-used one.
- The
Economics of Privacy is a literature survey of the privacy side of things
by Kai-Lung Hui and Ivan Png.
See also Alessandro
Acquisti's privacy economics page.
The Information Security Business
- Annual CSI-FBI surveys are
often cited by practitioners in the field. Survey results are
generally recognised to be unsatisfactory, but unfortunately we don't
have anything better at present. There are also various link farms, and an awful lot of hype.
- In Models and Measures for
Correlation in Cyber-Insurance, Rainer Boehme and Gaurav Kataria
examine the effects of local versus global correlation on insurance markets.
They show that in many economically important cases (such as globally
correlated risks from the worldwide spread of a worm or virus) there may be no
market solution, as the insurer's cost of safety capital becomes too high.
- In How
and Why More Secure Technologies Succeed in Legacy Markets: Lessons from the
Success of SSH, Nicholas Rosasco and David Larochelle discuss why many
security products failed and a few, like SSH, succeeded - in its case it
provided added non-security benefits to users. In Bootstrapping the Adoption
of Internet Security Protocols, Andy Ozment and Stuart Schechter provide a
model for the adoption of a security service in the face of network
externalities and discuss how bundling might be used to help roll out DNSSEC.
- Economic
Aspects of Controlling Capital Investments in Cyberspace - Security for
Critical Infrastructure Assets, by Larry Gordon, Marty Loeb, and Bill
Lucyshyn, looks at the interaction between information security investment and
internal control - whether asymmetric information between chief security
officers and chief financial officers can lead to moral hazard and adverse
election issues in organisations.
- The
Economic Impact of Role-Based Access Control is a study
commissioned by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology
study to assess the economic impact of an investment they made in
promoting role-based access control. It appears to be the first
serious study that uses the return on investment to assess research in
the field.
- Two papers, Economic
Consequences of Sharing Security Information (by Esther Gal-Or and
and Anindya Ghose) An
Economics Perspective on the Sharing of Information Related to
Security Breaches (by Larry Gordon), analyse the incentives that
firms have to share information on security breaches within the
context of the ISACs set up
recently by the US government. Theoretical tools developed to model
trade associations and research joint ventures can be applied to work
out optimal membership fees and other incentives. There are
interesting results on the type of firms that benefit, and questions
as to whether the associations act as social planners or joint profit
maximisers.
- Kevin Soo
Hoo's thesis was an interesting first attempt to bring some
econometrics to the field. It looks at what countermeasures might be
most cost-effective, given the FBI data. He also has an article
analysing the return on security investment, which he puts at an
unexciting 17-21 percent. (See press coverage here.)
There is also a US
government guide to doing risk assessment and cost-benefit
analysis.
- The economic
cost of publicly announced information security breaches: empirical
evidence from the stock market, by Katherine Campbell, Larry Gordon,
Marty Loeb and Lei Zhou, provides an analysis of the effect of security
scares on share prices. There is a highly significant negative market
reaction for information security breaches involving unauthorized access
to confidential data, but no significant reaction when the breach does
not involve confidential information. Thus stock market participants
appear to discriminate across types of breach.
Economics of vulnerabilities
- Is finding security
holes a good idea?, Eric Resorla argues that since large software
products such as Windows contain many security bugs, the removal of an
individual bug makes little difference to the likelihood that an
attacker will find another one later. But many exploits are based on
vulnerability information disclosed explicitly by researchers, or
implicitly when manufacturers ship patches. He therefore argues that,
unless discovered vulnerabilities are correlated, it is best to avoid
vulnerability disclosure and minimise patching.
- In Optimal Policy for Software
Vulnerability Disclosure, Ashish Arora, Rahul Telang and Hao Xu
argue to the contrary. They produce a model in which neither instant
disclosure not non-disclosure is optimal; without disclosure, software
firms will have little incentive to fix bugs in later versions of
their products. Their model is based ona respresentative vulnerability
rather than on vulnerability statistics.
- In Impact of Vulnerability
Disclosure and Patch Availability - An Empirical Analysis, Ashish
Arora, Ramayya Krishnan, Anand Nandkumar, Rahul Telang, and Yubao Yang
present empirical data to support the model of the above paper. While
vendors respond quickly to rapid disclosure, disclosure does increase the
number of attacks; and the number of reported vulnerabilities does
decline over time. They also find that open source projects patch more
quickly than proprietary vendors, and large companies patch more quickly
than small ones.
- Timing
the Application of Security Patches for Optimal Uptime provides a
quantitative analysis of a practical security management problem - how
long should you wait before you apply a security patch? Pioneers end
up discovering problems with patches that cause their systems to
break, but laggards are more vulnerable to attack. In a typical case,
a wait of between ten and thirty days seems about right.
- Economics of Security
Patch Management, by Huseyin Cavusoglu, Hasan Cavusoglu and Jun Zhang,
compares liability and cost-sharing as mechanisms for incentivising vendors to
work harder at patching their software. It turns out that liability helps where
vendors release less often than optical, while cost-sharing helps where they
release more often. If you want to achieve better coordination at minimum
additional cost to the vendor, they should not be used together. Meanwhile, Competitive and Strategic
Effects in the Timing of Patch Release by Ashish Arora, Christopher Forman,
Anand Nandkumar and Rahul Telang shows that competition hastens patch release
even more than disclosure threat in two out of three studied strategies.
- Open
and Closed Systems are Equivalent (that is, in an ideal world) is
a paper by Ross Anderson that examines whether openness helps the
attacker or the defender more. He shows that under standard
assumptions used in reliability growth models, openness helps both
equally. There remain many factors that can break symmetry and cause
one or the other to be better in practice, but one should look for
them in the ways a system departs from the standard assumptions.
- In Are vulnerabilities
externalities? Camp and Wolfram argue that exploits are externalities, and
that a market of vulnerabilities can increase public welfare. Stuart
Schechter's paper How to Buy Better
Testing: using competition to get the most security and robustness for
your dollar expands on this and his thesis, Computer Security
Strength and Risk: A Quantitative Approach develops this theme
in a lot more detail.
- In Bug Auctions: Vulnerability
Markets Reconsidered, Andy Ozment applies auction theory to analyse how
vulnerability markets might be run better, and how they might be exploited by
the unscrupulous. Then Michael Sutton and Frank Nagle's paper, Emerging Economic Models for
Vulnerability Research, described the operation of iDefense and Tipping
Point, two companies set up to purchase vulnerabilities on the market. Vulnerability
markets by Rainer Boehme provides a short survey of the whole field.
Relevant Theory Papers
- In System
Reliability and Free Riding, Hal Varian discusses ways in which
the defence of a system can depend on the efforts of the defenders.
Programming, for example, might be down to the weakest link (the most
careless programmer introducing the fatal vulnerability) while the
effectiveness of testing might depend on the sum of everyone's
efforts. There can also be cases where the security depends on the
efforts of an individual champion. These different models have
interesting effects on whether an appropriate level of defence can be
provided, and what policy measures are advisable.
- The economics
of information security investment, by Larry Gordon and Marty
Loeb, suggests that a firm may often prefer to protect those
information sets with middling vulnerability, rather than the most
vulnerable (as that may be too expensive); and that to maximise the
expected benefit, a firm might only spend a small fraction of the
expected loss.
- On the
Evolution of Attitudes toward Risk in Winner-Take-All Games by
Eddie Dekel and Suzanne Scotchmer presents an evolutionary model of
how winner-take-all conflicts such as patent races (or for that matter
battles for control of software standards) select for risk-takers and
lead to the extinction of risk-avoiders.
- A BGP-based
Mechanism for Lowest-Cost Routing, by Joan Feigenbaum, Christos
Papadimitriou, Rahul Sami and Scott Shenker, shows how combinatorial
auction techniques can be used (at least in theory) to provide
distributed routing mechanisms that are proof against strategic
behaviour by one or more of the participants.
- Lawrence Ausubel's Ascending
Auctions with Package Bidding shows that certain types of
combinatorial auction can be solved efficiently if bidding is
conducted through a trusted proxy - a system that can be relied on to
bid according to an agreed strategy.
- The
Communication Complexity of Efficient Allocation Problems, by Noam
Nisan and Ilya Segal, shows that although one can solve the allocation
problem using strategy-proof mechanisms, the number of bits that must
be communicated grows exponentially; thus in many cases the best
practical mechanism will be a simple bundled auction. The paper also
suggests that if arbitrary valuations are allowed, players can submit
bids that will cause communications complexity problems for all but
the smallest auctions.
- Noam Nisan and Amir Ronen's seminal paper Algorithmic
Mechanism Design shows how distributed mechanisms can be designed
that are strategyproof, that is, participants cannot hope to gain an
advantage by cheating. This paper sparked off much recent research at
the boundary between theoretical computer science and economics.
- There are two influential related papers by Geoffrey Heal and Howard
Kunreuther on security externalities, which extended ideas from information
security economics to much more general applications. Interdependent Security discusses the
many cases where my security depends on my neighbour's - where worms
can spread from one part of a comnpany to another, fire from one
apartment to another, and infection from one person to another. In
some cases there will be a temptation to free-ride off the efforts of
others, so it is hard to make security investment a dominant strategy. You
Can Only Die Once: Managing Discrete Interdependent Risks examines
the more general case and analyses the conditions under which various
security problems have equilibria that are not socially optimal.
Interactions of Security with Copyright and Digital Rights Management
- A
Cost Analysis of Windows Vista Content Protection asks some hard
questions about whether the new security mechanisms in Vista are worth
it, and to whom. It suggests Microsoft is imposing large costs on
hardware suppliers, under cover of protecting Hollywood content, but
in reality as a lock-in play to control content distribution.
- It
follows logically from the `Trusted Computing'
Frequently Asked Questions, which provided the first critical
survey of Trusted Computing, and Cryptography and
Competition Policy - Issues with `Trusted Computing' which
developed an economic analysis that first suggested that Microsoft
stoods to gain much more than Hollywood - with the quick win being to
lock in users of Microsoft Office more tightly, thus enabling its
price to be raised (or cut less) in the face of competition.
- Fetscherin and Vlietstra's DRM
and music: How do rights affect the download price? shows that the
prices of music tracks sold online are mostly determined by the rights
granted to the purchaser - including the right to burn, copy or export
the music - and also by the label and the location.
- Felix Oberholzer and Koleman Strumpf's The
Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales -- An Empirical Analysis
examines the correlation between downloads and music sales. They show
that downloads do not do significant harm to the music industry. Even
in the most pessimistic interpretation, five thousand downloads are
needed to displace a single album sale, while high-selling albums
actually benefit from file sharing. (See also a recent market survey.)
- Ivan Png's Copyright:
A Plea for Empirical Research attacks Oberholzer and Strumpf, citing six
other studies that did indeed show a negative correlation between downloads and
CD sales. It also examines the Eldred case and looks at the incentive effects
of copyright law on the production of movies.
- Yooki Park and Suzanne Scotchmer's Digital Rights
Management and the Pricing of Digital Products argues that DRM
does not have to be perfect - the cost of circumvention needn't be
raised above the monopoly price; that technical protection may still
yield more revenue than legal protection, as it may never expire; and
that separate DRM systems may yield higher prices than a shared
system, because of the greater incentives for, and effects of,
circumvention. It also looks at how the structure of a DRM consortium
such as the TCG might promote, or inhibit, collusive behaviour among
content vendors.
- Hal Varian's New
Chips Can Keep a Tight Rein on Consumers provides a concise
introduction to the problems that strict usage control mechanisms
create for innovation policy. A certain level of reverse engineering
for compatibility is an important brake on the abuse of monopoly
power, especially in information goods and services markets whose
incumbents try hard to manipulate switching costs by controlling
compatibility.
- In Cruel,
Mean or Lavish?: Economic Analysis, Price Discrimination and Digital
Intellectual Property Jamie Boyle argues that the next target of
the copyright lobby, after cracking down on fair use, will logically
be the doctrine of first sale: the right to resell, lend, or even
criticise a book (or film or software product) will be increasingly
limited by contract and by technical means. Publishers may try to
control their aftermarkets using arguments about the economics of
price discrimination.
- In The Law
and Economics of Reverse Engineering, Pam Samuelson and Suzanne
Scotchmer describe what may go wrong if some combination of technical
and legal restraints can be made to undermine the right to reverse
engineer software products so as to make other products compatible
with them. It provides the theoretical and scholarly underpinnings for
much of the work on the anti-competitive effects of the DMCA,
copyright control mechanisms, and information security mechanisms
applied to accessory control applications. There is also a shorter
paper that applies the lessons of the main paper to the DeCSS
case.
- Open
Source Software Projects as User Innovation Networks expands on
this. Eric von Hippel shows how most of the innovations that spur
economic growth are not anticipated by the manufacturers of the
platforms on which they are based; the PC, for example, was conceived
as an engine for running spreadsheets. If IBM had been able to limit
it to doing that, a huge opportunity would have been
lost. Furthermore, technological change in the IT goods and services
markets is usually cumulative. If security technology can be abused by
incumbent firms to make life harder for people trying to develop novel
uses for their products, this will create all sorts of traps and
perverse incentives.
- In Security
and Lock-In: The Case of the U.S. Cable Industry, Tom Lookabaugh and Doug
Sicker discuss an existing case history of an industry's development being
affected by security-related technical lock-in. US cable industry operators are
locked in to their set-top-box vendors; and although they can largely
negotiate to offset the direct costs of this when committing to a suppler, the
indirect costs are large and unmanageable. In particular, innovation suffers.
Cable is falling behind other platforms, such as the internet, as the two
platform vendors don't individually have the incentives to invest in improving
their platforms.
- Trusted
Computing, Peer-To-Peer Distribution, and the Economics of Pirated
Entertainment, by Stuart Schechter, Rachel Greenstadt and Mike
Smith, shows how trusted computing technology can aid the pirates as
well as the Hollywood guys. TC platforms will, if they perform as
advertised, provide much more robust platforms for hosting
peer-to-peer file-swapping services; they will be very much less
vulnerable to the service denial attacks currently deployed by the
content industry against services such as gnutella, grokster and
kazaa.
- In Privacy
Engineering for Digital Rights Management Systems, Joan
Feigenbaum, Michael Freedman, Tomas Sander and Adam Shostack discuss
why the economic motivations of the various players lead to serious
difficulties in deploying privacy technology for DRM.
Information Security Regulation
- Why
the Security Market has Not Worked Well is a chapter from a 1990
study by the NAS Computer Science and Technology Board which provides
an early analysis of the `computer security problem'. It blames the
rapid pace of technological (and particularly architectural) change,
the comparatively slow pace of government market interventions
(through procurement and evaluation programs), export controls, a lack
of consumer understanding of the risks, and the very limited recourse
that US customers have against vendors of faulty software.
- Improving
Information Flow in the Information Security Market describes the
efforts of the US government over the last couple of decades to tackle
a perceived market failure in the security business - the lemons
problem, whereby bad products drove out good ones. The attempted fix
was a government-sponsored evaluation scheme (the Orange Book), but
that was not without its own problems.
- In The Economic
Impact of Regulatory Information Disclosure on Information Security
Investments, Competition, and Social Welfare, Anindya Ghose and Uday Rajan
discuss how the implementation of US legislation such as Sarbanes-Oxley,
Gramm-Leach-Bliley and HIPAA has placed a disproportionate burden on small and
medium sized businesses, largely through a one-model-fits-all approach to
compliance by the big accounting firms. They show how mandatory investment in
security compliance can have a number of unindented consequences including
distorting security markets and reducing competition.
- In The Potential
for Underinvestment in Internet Security: Implications for Regulatory
Policy, Alfredo Garcia and Barry Horowitz show that the gap between the
social value of ISPs, and the revenue at stake associated with their security
levels, is continuing to increase. If this continues, they argue, mandatory
security standards may become likely.
- The European Union has proposed a Network
Security Policy that sets out a common European response to
attacks on information systems. This starts using economic arguments
about market failure to justify government action in this sector. The
proposed solutions are rather familiar, involving everything from
consciousness raising to Common Criteria evaluations; but the use of
economic analysis could be significant for the future.
- The German Federal
Government's Comments on the TCG and NGSCB in the Field of Trusted
Computing sets out government concerns about TC on a wide range of
issues, from certification and trapdoors through data protection to
economic policy matters.
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies has a very good
study of the risks
of cyber-terrorism which goes a long way to debunk the
scaremongering and hype about the vulnerability of critical
infrastructures to digital attack.
- The Brookings Institute has published a short paper
on the economic effects of security interdependency, and a longer book
chapter on the economics of homeland security - what should be the
roles of government and the private sector in financing precautions
against terrorism?
- Economics
and Security in Statecraft and Scholarship explains why a web
search on `economics' and `security' turns up few interesting
documents on international affairs. The two were considered closely
linked until 1945; thereafter nuclear weapons were thought to decouple
national survival from economic power, while the USA established a
pattern of confronting the USSR over security, and Japan and the EU
over trade. This caused Washington bureaucrats to split into a
`security' camp and a `political economy' camp; academics studying
international relations followed suit. Bill Clinton started to get the
bureaucrats working together again from about 1995, but the academics
are still lagging somewhat.
Miscellaneous Papers
- The
topology of covert conflict examines how the police can best target
an underground organisation given some knowledge of its patterns of
communication, and they in turn might react, using a framework combining
ideas from network analysis and evolutionary game theory.
- In The Economics
of Mass Surveillance, George Danezis and Bettina Wittneben apply these
network analysis ideas to privacy policy; traffic analysis conducted
against just a few well-connected militant organisers can draw a surprising
number of members of a subversive organisation into the surveillance net.
- In The Economics of
Digital Forensics, Tyler Moore explains how the interests of vendors
diverge from those of law enforcement. For example, mobile phone vendors prefer
proprietary interfaces, which makes data recovery from handsets difficult;
recovery tools exist only for the most common models. Criminals should buy
unfashionable phones, while the police should prefer open standards.
- In "Proof-of-Work"
Proves Not to Work, Ben Laurie and Richard Clayton show that the
spam-blocking schemes that rely on getting mail senders to perform some
computational task are unlikely to solve the spam problem; there are many
legitimate senders with less available compute power per message than many
spammers can obtain from the compromised hosts they use. In Modelling Incentives
for Email Blocking Strategies, Andrei Serjantov and Richard Clayton
analyse the incentives on ISPs to block traffic from other ISPs with many
infected machines, and back this up with data. They also show how a number
of existing spam-blocking strategies are irrational and counterproductive.
Conferences
The event to aim for if you want to keep up with research in this field and get
to know people is WEIS - the Workshop on the Economics of Information
Security.
- The first of these workshops, WEIS
2002, took place at UC Berkeley
- WEIS 2003 was held at
University of Maryland
- WEIS 2004 was at
the University of Minnesota
- WEIS 2005 was hosted at
Harvard
- WEIS
2006 was held in Cambridge, England
These links give you access to all the conference papers. WEIS 2007 will be
held on June 7-8 at Carnegie-Mellon
University.
Other relevant conferences include:
Community - Home Pages of People Interested in Security
Economics
Books
- Information
Rules, by Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian, is a good introduction to
economics for computer scientists. It focuses on the specific
problems and opportunities of IT goods and services markets, and the
characteristics that tend to make them different from the market for
potatoes - such as the combination of high fixed costs and low
marginal costs, network externalities, technical lock-in and standards
wars. It is pitched at the level of an educated general reader. If you
want the mathematical detail too, read Varian's Intermediate
Microeconomics".
- Security
Engineering by Ross Anderson is a good introduction for economists
(and others) to secure systems engineering. It covers not just
technologies such as crypto and `infrastructure' matters such as
firewalls and PKI, but a number of specific applications, such as
banking and medical record-keeping, and embedded systems such as
automatic teller machines and burglar alarms. It brings out the fact
that most systems don't fail because the mechanisms are weak, but
because they're used wrong, and provides economic explanations for a
number of these failures.
- Secrets and
Lies by Bruce Schneier is a more populist book in the same
theme. It discusses how things go wrong and what sort of
organisational measures are advisable to contain them. It debunks the
idea that security problems can be fixed by focussing on purely
technical measures such as cryptography.
- Economics of Information Security has a selection of papers taken from
the first two international workshops on security economics, WEIS
2002 and WEIS 2003.
- Economic
Behavior in Adversity by Jack Hirshleifer is a set of essays
from the early days of conflict theory. It starts off from early work at
Rand on how societies and economies recover from disaster; in an attempt
to plan for World War 3, Rand economists looked at the aftermath of
tragedies from World War 2 to the Black Death. This led to work on a
broader front from evolutionary game theory through the interplay of law
and economics to hindrance strategies in general. (These are where a
competitor concentrates not on running faster, but on making its
adversaries run slower.)
- The
Dark Side of the Force: Economic Foundations of Conflict Theory is
a more recent set of essays by Jack Hirshleifer, looking at such
topics as the causes of war, why it is not always true that the rich
get richer and the poor poorer, and why the technology of conflict is
absolutely essential to such questions. The decisiveness of conflict
matters; so does whether its outcome depends on the absolute or
relative difference of effort between the combatants. The evolution
of strategies, for both conflict and cooperation, is growing in its
perceived importance.
- Risk by John Adams is the classic study of why people and organisations are
sometimes more risk-averse than would seem rational, and sometimes more
risk-loving. For example, mandatory seat-belt laws did not reduce road traffic
casualties overall, but merely shifted them from vehicle occupants to
pedestrians and cyclists. Adams explains this by a `risk thermostat': people
compensate for an increased feeling of safety by driving faster. In general,
behaviour is governed by the probable costs and benefits of possible actions
as perceived through filters formed from experience and culture. This work
exposes the rather shaky foundations of much current risk assessment work.
- The
Future of Ideas by Larry Lessig is an important and influential
description of the effects that increasing technical protection of
copyright is likely to have on a range of fields, from academic and
intellectual life through the competitiveness of markets and the
level of innovation. He argues that the overprotection of digital
rights is an error: private land is more valuable if it is
separated from other private land by public roads, sewers and other
utility rights-of way. Its value is also enhanced by the existence of
public parks.
- Managing Cybersecurity Resources: A Cost-Benefit Analysis by Larry Gordon and
Marty Loeb looks at how one can assess the costs of information security
breaches and thus estimate the return on security investment.
Other Resources
Here are some suggestions for further reading:
- Paul Resnick's web
page on reputation systems has links to a lot of research that bears on
incentives and their relationship with dependability in many systems
- Brian Lavoie's paper The
incentives to preserve digital materials: roles, scenarios, and economic
decision-making investigates the long-term dependability of archives using
tools and concepts that appear applicable to many security problems
- An article in Wired
describes the low ratio of vulnerabilities to exploits and the attention-seeking
nature of many vulnerability reports
- The Information
Economy pages at SIMS, UC Berkeley
- Smart
and stupid networks: Why the Internet is like Microsoft, Andrew
Odlyzko
- The bumpy road
of electronic commerce, Andrew Odlyzko
- The Economist covered the subject in 2002 with a survey of information security (subscription now required).
- The I3P Digital Library
- Snake-oil Security
Claims: the Systematic Misrepresentation of Product Security in the
E-commerce Arena, John Michener, Steven Mohan, James Astrachan and David
Hale
- Risk Management is
Where the Money Is, Dan Geer
- The Vmyths site is devoted to debunking
computer security hysteria (and see press coverage here)
- The Battle Over the
Institutional Ecosystem in the Digital Environment, Yochai Benkler
- Coase's Penguin, or
Linux and the Nature of the Firm, Yochai Benkler
- Breaking Up
Is Hard To Do: Modeling Security Threats for Smartcards, Bruce Schneier and
Adam Shostack
- The software economics site run
by Kevin Sullivan, Barry Boehm, Mary Shaw and David Notkin
- Reverse
Engineering, David Musker
- A
Simple Model of Fads and Cascading Failures, Duncan Watts
- Information
Security for Electronic Commerce on the Internet: The Need for a New Policy and
New Research, Lee McKnight
- Measuring Positive
Externalities from Unobservable Victim Precaution: An Empirical Analysis of
Lojack by Ian Ayres and Steven Levitt
- The Cyberwar Debate: Perception and Politics in US Critical
Infrastructure Protection, Ralf Bendrath
- Sell First,
Fix Later: Impact of Patching on Software Quality by Ashish Arora,
Jonathan Caulkins and Rahul Telang
- Economic Analysis of
the Market for Software Vulnerability Disclosure by Karthik Kannan and
Rahul Telang
- The Link Between
Economics, Stability and Security in a Transforming Economy Katarzyna
Zukrowska
- Economics and Security in the
Asia Pacific: A Constructivist Analysis, Shaun Narine (requires free
ciaonet subscription)
- Power and Prosperity:
Linkages Between Security and Economics in US.-Japanese Relations Since
1960, Robert Wampler (requires free ciaonet subscription)
- Economics-Security
Nexus: The Evolution of Chinese Security Policy 1979-1991, Mumin Chen
- The Economics of Airline Safety
and Security by Robert Hahn
- NATO has been running annual colloquia on the interaction
between economics and national security, with a particular emphasis on Eastern
Europe. There's a summary by
Martin Spechler of the 1999 workshop
- An Economic
Perspective on Transnational Terrorism, Todd Sandler
- The World Bank has some fascinating papers on the
economics of civil war, crime and violence, by Paul Collier and Anke
Hoeffler.